Market Commentary Friday 30 July 2010
 
 
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
 
EUR/USD closed higher on Thursday and is challenging the 38% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are bullish signalling that additional short-term gains are possible. If it extends the rally off June's low, the 50% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
 
 
 
USD/JPY closed lower on Thursday as it extends Wednesday's short covering rebound. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible. If it extends Tuesday's rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below this month's low crossing are needed to renew this year's decline.
 
 
 
GBP/USD closed higher on Thursday as it extends the rally off May's low. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the aforementioned rally, the 62% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
 
 
 
USD/CHF closed lower on Thursday and renewed the decline off June's high. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it renews Tuesday's rally, the 25% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing is the next upside target. If it extends the decline off June's high, the 75% retracement level of the 2009-2010 rally crossing is the next upside target.
 
 
BULLION
 
Gold closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it rebounds off the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that additional weakness is possible near-term. If it extends the decline off June's high, the 62% retracement level of the aforementioned decline crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
 
 
 
Silver closed higher due to short covering on Thursday while extending this month's trading range. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If it extends the decline off June's high, June's low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing are needed to confirm that a low has been posted.
 
 
U.S. STOCK MARKET INDICES
 
DJI closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signalling that additional gains are possible near-term. If the Dow extends this month's rally, June's high crossing is the next upside target. SPI closed slightly lower due to profit taking on Thursday as it consolidates some of this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Friday. However, stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. NDI closed lower on Thursday as it extends this week's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning bearish signalling that a short-term top might be in or is near.
 
Economic Indicators
http://www.hyinvestment.com/english/Economic_Calendar.htm
 
 
ENERGY
 
Crude Oil closed higher due to short covering on Thursday as it consolidated some of this week's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term friendly outlook. If it renews the rally off this month's low, June's high crossing is the next upside target.
 
 
 
Natural Gas closed higher on Thursday as it extended the rally off this month's low. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends the aforementioned rally, the reaction high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
 
 
COFFEE
 
Coffee closed higher on Thursday breaking out above the trading range of the past five weeks. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Thursday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If it extends today's rally, June's high crossing is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing would temper the near-term friendly outlook.